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It was earlier presented at the JME Conference 07--10 October 1998


DP0444 -- UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy

DISCUSSION PAPER NO.444 February 2000
Technology and Growth

UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy

A. Haldane and D. Quah

This paper documents some stylized facts on evolving UK Phillips curves, and shows how these differ from their US versions. We interpret UK Phillips curve dynamics in a positive theory of monetary policy---how policy-maker attitudes on the Phillips curve have evolved since the 1950s---rather than, more traditionally, as interaction between exogenous demand and supply disturbances. Combining this framework with reasoned conjectures on how policy-makers' beliefs have changed helps explain some features of the evolving UK Phillips curve. We suggest that correlations suggesting an extreme favorable unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly acknowledging that no tradeoff exists.


Other academic papers by Danny Quah



Danny Tyson Quah, dquah@econ.lse.ac.uk